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Abstract

Demographic trends point to an inevitable population crisis—in the coming decades, older people will start disproportionately outnumbering young people. The problems that seniors currently face, such as technological illiteracy, mental health issues, and lack of access to transportation, are going to get worse as there will be fewer young people to act as caretakers. 

 

An Aging Population

I live in a very old town. To be clear, Boca Raton isn’t old historically; architect Addison Mizner laid the groundwork for the municipality in the mid 1920s. I mean “old” as in Boca Raton is a demographically senior city, with 25% of all residents aged 65 or older. That is far greater than the national average of 16.8%. 

 

Personally, I have many senior citizens close to me. I am blessed in that all four of my grandparents are active participants in my life; 3 of them being 85 or older. Additionally, I volunteer at a local senior home, and my experience there has been eye-opening. I work in the assisted living facility, in which there is a wide range of residents that I interact with. On my most recent visit, I had a 30 minute conversation with a resident about her life experience, and she gave me many insightful comments on her work experience as a speech therapist. Her name is Joan, and she is well past 80. I care deeply about all of these individuals, and it’s blatantly obvious that all of them, in some way, are in serious need of help. Every one of these people needs help catered towards them; just like everyone else, senior citizens face unique, personal problems, ranginging from medical to transportational to social, among numerous others. I make it a priority to help out in some manner, but it worries me when I consider the seniors outside of my circle. Are they getting the help they need? 

 

Moreover, it is no coincidence that there are this many elderly figures in my life. According to the World Health Organization, international life expectancy has increased by more than 6 years since 2000. In the US alone, that number rose by more than a year from 2022 to 2023.  By 2030, the number of people globally aged 60 or older will reach 1.4 billion, 400 million greater than the figure in 2020. People are living longer, and there are going to be more seniors than ever before in the coming years. Notably, this trend is not the same for all age brackets. According to the US Census Bureau, the share of US citizens aged 65 or older is projected to rise from 17% to 23% over the span of 2022-2050. This is good in some respects; lifespans are continually lengthening. The issue, however, is that the number of young people isn’t also increasing. In fact, that number is rapidly declining. 

 

Decrease in Fertility

In recent decades, fertility rates in western countries have steadily declined, including in the United States. The replacement level fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman; in order for a population to maintain itself, each woman needs to give birth to just over two children. However, according to the US Census Bureau, that rate was 1.64 in 2020—significantly lower than the replacement level. This sub-replacement level fertility is leading to an imbalance of young workers and retired citizens. 

 

This is a direct effect of positive change; we are essentially victims of our own sociological success. Higher rates of education lead to later marriages, which are proven to be more successful marriages. However, the average woman gets married nearly three years later than she would as of the year 2000. The later a woman is married, the fewer children she will have on average. 

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While this fertility decline has many implications on population, it will also change the demographic makeup of the US. As birth rates steadily drop, so too will the amount of young people in the nation. However, Baby Boomers and Generation X will remain large age brackets, leading to a clear imbalance between young workers and retired senior citizens in the coming decades. In fact, the US Census Bureau reports that by as early as 2034, there will be more US citizens older than 65 than younger than 18.

 

More Older People + Fewer Young People = A Potential Crisis

If there are going to be fewer young people, there will be a shortage of caretakers for seniors. According to the Family Caregiver Alliance, 48% of all caretakers, which can include the seniors’ children, paid workers, and volunteers are between 18 and 49 years old. 

 

In sum, there will be fewer people working in the senior care industry alongside fewer children to take care of their parents. Moreover, these already fewer children are becoming increasingly likely to move away from their hometowns, leaving their parents with nobody. Where does this leave the growing senior population? If there is no adaptation in response to this trend, older people will suffer.

 

Addressing Senior Issues

It will be so vital in the coming decades to think innovatively about addressing senior problems. Very soon, present solutions will no longer be viable; it is necessary to move forward keeping demographic shifts in mind as a literal generation-defining phenomenon. There must be an adaptation. The following topics are all major problem areas among senior citizens, and they will all become worse as a result of the declining youth population and increasing senior citizen population.

 

Technology

A major issue for seniors is difficulty with modern technology. According to Pew Research Center, adults 65+ are more than 25% less likely than the average adult to go online. This is troubling because of the societal importance of internet use. An inability to access the internet is an inability to fully function in society. This number is different among seniors of different ages; the older a senior is, the less likely it is that they will go online. This is due to a variety of factors such as physical impairment and difficulty of learning how to use new tech. Seniors with disabilities are 17% less likely to go online. This is problematic because it puts those who might need internet resources the most at a further disadvantage. Additionally, only 18% of seniors believed that they would feel comfortable using technology without any help from someone walking them through the process.

 

Mental Health

Another major concern for elderly individuals is mental health. A 2023 analysis conducted by the World Health Organization points to some troubling statistics. Around 14% of adults aged 60+ live with a mental disorder, the most prevalent of which being depression and anxiety. This leads to an increased risk of suicide among elders; they comprise over a quarter of all United States suicide deaths annually. This mental health crisis among seniors is due to two main factors: social isolation and loneliness. Elders are most at risk to these factors because they are more likely to face issues like the loss of loved ones, living alone, failing health, and a lack of purpose. This is problematic not only mentally; social isolation is just as much of a risk factor as smoking, obesity, and physical inactivity.

 

Transportation

Another concern is transportation among seniors. The United States is incredibly car-centric, in fact, there are 908 cars per 1000 people. However, many elderly people face difficulty driving and rely on caregivers to provide transportation. Losing the ability to drive is particularly disenfranchising in the United States because of this car-centrism and lacking public transit infrastructure in many cities and states. As caregivers become less readily available for seniors, moving around will also become more difficult.

 

These problems will only become more complex and more difficult to solve when they are given more time to develop. The body of research has led to overwhelmingly clarity of the scale and severity that these issues might reach. If changes are not made, and demographic trends not adjusted for, seniors will feel more isolated and more helpless than ever in the near future.